Europe In Denial
Eight horrible years after rescuing Greece from financial collapse, the EU can now rest on its laurels with the recent announcement that puts an end on its emergency bailouts. In the words of Mario Centeno, the head of the Eurozone finance ministers, who jubilantly announced the end of the Greek debt crisis, “Greece now joins Ireland, Spain, Cyprus and even Portugal in the ranks of euro area countries that turned around their economies and once again stand on their own feet.”
[Of course, if you believe that, then you must think the Earth is flat]
But that at least is what the Franco-German axis wants us to believe.
Greece is slated to leave its financial rescue on August 20, and finance ministers from the 19 EU member countries have been under pressure to come up with a 'goodbye deal' that is strong enough in the eyes of the markets and a win-win for all concerned parties. This agreement is an important precedent for other troubled economies in the EU, and a turning point for Greece - after it stunned the world a decade ago with an out of control government spending that led to 3 failed bailouts and a near collapse of the euro.
As expected, the exit deal included the writing-off loans off the table and extending maturities by ten more years on significant parts of its debt obligations. The Germans, [Greece’s long bailout nemesis and biggest creditor] have put on a major resistance to any debt relief that compromises their interest and at their own expense.
Again, that is what the Franco-German axis wants us to believe.
Any objective assessment of Greece’ exit deal will tell you that the problem was not solved – and was just moved to a time that extends to eternity. The talking point of Greece’s new debt arrangement is the ten-year postponement of payments that total about €96.6Billion and were due to begin in 2023. The current Greek government has offered easy repayments by 2033 in exchange for harsh austerity measures that it sought to improve [lessen] the mountainous pile of public debt, which has reached 180% of GDP, or twice their annual domestic output.
Some economic managers expressed concerns about the impossible annual debt repayments from 2033 to 2060, yet it looks like a case of let's cross that bridge if & when we get there. Some even predicted that with the current fiscal management, Greece’ debt to national income ratio will balloon to 230% by 2060 - a tipping point for economic collapse, but that is something EU would like to face 50 years from now.
It is a well-known practice among creditors that to cover up for bad loans, they extend new loans. And when new the loans are exhausted, creditors allow some time for clients to remiss their debt and suspend payments, but with interest accumulating. This has been the experience of Greece since 2010 and has been a willing casualty of EU’s pretend and extend strategy – as Greece bleeds silently in exchange for more money in the form of a rescue package.
That’s what the Franco-German axis does not want you to know.
The Greek debt drama has now evolved into a tragedy like that of Sisyphus, where the Franco-German Gods at Brussels have forever condemned Greece to carry the burden of public debt.
Now we have the Italian Show to look forward to.
Meanwhile, the Brexit fiasco slowly unfolds:
Prime Minister Theresa May will shortly put forward to the EU Commissars the final soft Brexit Chequers compromise she long secretly sought, having been a closet Remainer from the outset.
We predict the EU will reject it.
Quite what follows is more difficult to predict other than possibly a messy and bitter divorce.
However, it will most certainly lead to her being ousted as PM and possibly a resulting General Election; the result of which could be disastrous for UK Plc should New Labour win an outright majority.
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